Monday, October 17, 2005

Roulette and Weather

Last week there was a three page article in the Seattle Times about global warming (basically stating that it was an undisputable fact). In yesterday's paper the letter's to the editor had eleven letters about the article - five were critical, four were supportive, and two were written by smart asses who had nothing of note to say.

Sometimes reading letters to the editor are funny, because people are so dumb. Take this except for example: How can anyone predict the climate over the next 100 years when today's experts are so often wrong about tomorrow's weather?

Um, maybe 'cause large scale tends are easy to predict, but the specifics are not. I have no clue what day in February it will snow in Ottawa, but I'm pretty sure that they will be at least a foot of snow on the ground there by the end of February.

Or better yet, to see how dumb their argument is, let's turn it into a gambling analogy - A casino cannot predict where a roulette wheel will land next, so how can the casino make money over the next 100 beats I place? Surely I can't loose any money if I bet on roulette!

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